Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
National Party 54.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
National Party 54.4%Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.6 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 17, 24, 5:51 AM UTCDec 19, 26, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The next New Zealand general election is to be held on or before Saturday, 19 December 2026, most likely in November 2026 although it could be called at any time.
- Will be resolved based on the results available at https://electionresults.govt.nz/.
- Resolution will be for the largest party, not necessarily the party that enters government.
- Largest party will be by number of seats, using party vote percent if there is a tie.