Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
National Party 64.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+20.1 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 17, 24, 5:51 AM UTCDec 19, 26, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
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Manifold MarketsNew Zealand general election winner?
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PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
The next New Zealand general election is to be held on or before Saturday, 19 December 2026, most likely in November 2026 although it could be called at any time.
- Will be resolved based on the results available at https://electionresults.govt.nz/.
- Resolution will be for the largest party, not necessarily the party that enters government.
- Largest party will be by number of seats, using party vote percent if there is a tie.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Largest party in the next New Zealand general election??
- Manifold Markets prices National Party at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Largest party in the next New Zealand general election? resolve?
- Largest party in the next New Zealand general election? is scheduled to resolve on December 19, 2026.
- How is Largest party in the next New Zealand general election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The next New Zealand general election is to be held on or before Saturday, 19 December 2026, most likely in November 2026 although it could be called at any time.