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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
National coalition 53.6%+2.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
National coalition 53.6%+2.1ptForecasters
49
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.6 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 2:49 AM UTCNov 6, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves to the first government formation after the next New Zealand election (if it's postponed beyond 2026, resolves to the next election after that).
- "Other" might include a grand coalition containing both National and Labour, or a government of small parties without either major party.
- Labour/National need not be the largest party in their coalition for their respective options to resolve, and they may govern alone.
- "the named outcome" means that a new election happens without a non-caretaker government being formed.
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coalition governments include:
- Minority governments
