Current community forecast
Labour coalition 49.4%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 2:49 AM UTCOct 16, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves to the first government formation after the next New Zealand election (if it's postponed beyond 2026, resolves to the next election after that).
- "Other" might include a grand coalition containing both National and Labour, or a government of small parties without either major party.
- Labour/National need not be the largest party in their coalition for their respective options to resolve, and they may govern alone.
- "the named outcome" means that a new election happens without a non-caretaker government being formed.
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coalition governments include:
- Minority governments
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
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+49 more outcomes
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- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 more outcomes
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
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+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election??
- Manifold Markets prices Labour coalition at 49% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election? resolve?
- What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election? is scheduled to resolve on October 16, 2026.
- How is What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the first government formation after the next New Zealand election (if it's postponed beyond 2026, resolves to the next election after that).