Current community forecast
Yes 82.6%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 26, 25, 8:10 AM UTCNov 7, 26, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
The latest the election may be held is 19 December 2026.
- It's likely the election will be held before that date so this will resolve on the election day.
- The date will be updated once the election date is announced, likely early 2026.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Christopher Luxon is still serving as the Prime Minister of New Zealand on the day the 2026 general election is held.
- The market will resolve to NO if:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held? resolve?
- Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2026.
- How is Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The latest the election may be held is 19 December 2026.