Current community forecast
Yes 95.5%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 26, 25, 8:10 AM UTCNov 7, 26, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next Spanish general election be held before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of New Zealand?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of New Zealand?
Manifold MarketsChris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsChris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsBinyamin Netanyahu still Prime Minister of Israel through the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
The latest the election may be held is 19 December 2026.
- It's likely the election will be held before that date so this will resolve on the election day.
- The date will be updated once the election date is announced, likely early 2026.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Christopher Luxon is still serving as the Prime Minister of New Zealand on the day the 2026 general election is held.
- The market will resolve to NO if:
