Current community forecast
Yes 50%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 23, 25, 6:53 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Christopher Luxon is the Prime Minister of New Zealand on February 1, 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by checking official New Zealand government sources, such as the Beehive website (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/), which lists the current Prime Minister.
- Luxon was sworn into office on November 27, 2023, leading the National Party in a coalition government.
- The last legal date for the next general election is 19 December 2026, meaning a new Prime Minister could potentially take office between now and February 1, 2027 if an election is held and a different party wins.
- Opinion polls show that Luxon's lack of popularity has deepened over his first 18 months in office, though recent polling suggests some stabilization.
