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Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Labour 53%+8.8ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Labour 53%+8.8ptForecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Aug 22, 24, 12:03 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election
Manifold MarketsFollowing the 2026 New Zealand election, which parties will be represented in parliament?
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Manifold MarketsWho will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?
KalshiWill the CAQ still form the government after QC general election in 2026 ?
Manifold MarketsNew Zealand general election winner?
KalshiRules
Parties with ministers inside cabinet are considered part of forming a government.
- Parties who do not have ministers inside cabinet are not considered part of the government for the resolution of this question.
- So, in 2020, a similar question would only resolve positively for Labour.
- In 2023, it would resolve positively for National, the named outcome, and ACT.
- I will add new parties on request from 1 January 2026 if they are officially registered, or as I judge to be worthwhile adding.
- Parties included so far are those that ran in both 2020 and 2023.
