What combination of parties will form executive government after the next Australian federal election?
Politics1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastLabor 54.1%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMay 23, 26, 2:19 AM UTCMay 23, 28, 2:13 AM UTC
Trends
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the party or coalition of parties that forms executive government following the next general election for the Australian House of Representatives.
- For the purpose of this market, a party is in executive government if at least one of its members holds a ministerial portfolio in the first ministry list published after the election.
- Clarifications
- For the purpose of this market, an assistant minister does not hold a ministerial portfolio.
- It is likely that a combination of parties forming executive government will have a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and a coalition agreement of some kind.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What combination of parties will form executive government after the next Australian federal election??
- Manifold Markets prices Labor at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What combination of parties will form executive government after the next Australian federal election? resolve?
- What combination of parties will form executive government after the next Australian federal election? is scheduled to resolve on May 23, 2028.
- How is What combination of parties will form executive government after the next Australian federal election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria