Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Labor 54.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 27, 26, 11:02 AM UTCMay 31, 28, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will run for a lower house seat at the next Australian federal election?
Manifold MarketsWhat combination of parties will form executive government after the next Australian federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill a Liberal MP or Senator join Community Strong Australia by the next Australian federal election?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiRules
Settles to the party that supplies the prime minister after the next Australian federal election, which must be held before May 21st, 2028.
- Only the party of the prime minister is relevant, even if a coalition forms government.
