Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
5.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffChessElectionSports2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Alice Weidel · —
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Stored price
Alice Weidel 44%Leader of 6 outcomes
Alice Weidel 44%Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$20.6
Open interest
$2.7K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Alice WeidelSpread
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Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 9:00 PM UTCAug 26, 29, 2:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
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Venue terms
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- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Alice Weidel
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
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FutuurWill a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Alice Weidel becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Der Bundeswahlleiter
- The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the office rather than serving in a caretaker or acting capacity. A person who becomes Chancellor through an intra-term change of government, without a new federal election, does NOT resolve this market If no government has formed by Aug 26, 2029, No one resolves YES and every other market resolves NO If new elections are called before a government forms, No one resolves YES immediately This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. For this market a qualifying declaration must identify the person who will hold the Chancellorship following government formation; a declaration that a party has won the election does NOT qualify.
Rules for each outcome
- Alice Weidel
- If Alice Weidel becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Friedrich Merz
- If Friedrich Merz becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Felix Banaszak
- If Felix Banaszak becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- No one
- If No one becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lars Klingbeil
- If Lars Klingbeil becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Baerbel Bas
- If Baerbel Bas becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.