Current community forecast
No 76.4%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 6:13 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWill the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Alice Weidel become next German chancellor before 2030?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Ed Miliband becomes Chancellor of the Exchequer at any point before the end of 2029.
- Resolution will be verified through official UK government sources, specifically the GOV.UK Chancellor of the Exchequer page.
- The market resolves NO if Miliband does not hold this position by December 31, 2029.
- Ed Miliband currently serves as Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero since July 2024.
- He was Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition from 2010 to 2015.