Current community forecast
No 67.2%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 7, 25, 4:53 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves based on the next Bundestag Chancellor election (expected 2029 or earlier).
- Resolves YES if some or all AfD MPs vote for the winning Chancellor candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win (absolute majority in rounds 1–2, or plurality in round 3).
- Resolves NO if the Chancellor is elected without AfD votes, or if AfD votes for the winner but they would have won without them.
- Note: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on publicly available information (e.g., announced coalition agreements, party statements).
- In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.