Will US withdraw from NATO by which date?
0.1 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 2%-0.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$42.8
Liquidity
$42.5K
High liquiditySpread
0.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
68
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:01 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
- Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
- The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
- The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
