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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

2.0% (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffUS Politics6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 7%+2.0%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality

100 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$14.2K

Liquidity

$164.6K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.7% / 6.8%

Spread

1.5%

Tight spread
7d Change

-1.4%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Nov 5, 25, 7:10 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
April 30
April 30
0%
June 30
June 30
0%

Selected outcome

December 317%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
  • Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
  • The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
  • The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
  • Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
  • The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
  • The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.