Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.4%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 23, 1:59 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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FutuurRules
Previously nearly-universal support for Israel among the western political powers is starting to degrade.
- Polling in various western countries tends to indicate that a generational shift is underway.
- A major tipping point in this shift will be when it is no longer domestically tenable for the US to officially provide military aid for Israel (e.g. supplying them with money/missiles as a regular budget item).
- Will this happen before January 1st, 2030?
- Edit: The US may still maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, recognize it as a state, consider it an ally, and even provide it with other kinds of foreign aid.
- This question will resolve solely on official military aid supporting Israel’s ability to wage war offensively and defensively (e.g. supplying monetary assistance for the purchase of weapons, and/or supplying those weapons directly, missiles for the Iron Dome, etc).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030? resolve?
- Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Previously nearly-universal support for Israel among the western political powers is starting to degrade.