Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 11, 25, 8:18 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/trump-administration-launches-review-biden-era-defense-pact-with-australia-uk-2025-06-11/
- Resolves YES if the US withdraws from the pact, or substantially downgrades its involvment in it, while Trump is president.
- As this could easily fall into a grey zone, I will not place any bet in this market.
- If the outcome is ambiguous, I will rely on a combination of sources and trader input to determine whether the Trump administration effectively "withdrew the US from AUKUS".
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump? resolve?
- Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal: