Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 11, 25, 8:18 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/trump-administration-launches-review-biden-era-defense-pact-with-australia-uk-2025-06-11/
- Resolves YES if the US withdraws from the pact, or substantially downgrades its involvment in it, while Trump is president.
- As this could easily fall into a grey zone, I will not place any bet in this market.
- If the outcome is ambiguous, I will rely on a combination of sources and trader input to determine whether the Trump administration effectively "withdrew the US from AUKUS".
