Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.3%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 9, 23, 2:52 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
The following will resolve NO: The United States continues to stand as a full NATO member continuously, through December 31, 2028.
- Full NATO member is defined as continuing to assent to all NATO articles, and not going into “stand-by” or any other reduction in membership status.
- All other scenarios, including the US leaving NATO and returning, or the disbandment of NATO altogether, resolve YES.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028? resolve?
- Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The following will resolve NO: The United States continues to stand as a full NATO member continuously, through December 31, 2028.