Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.3%
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37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 9, 23, 2:52 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 9:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The following will resolve NO: The United States continues to stand as a full NATO member continuously, through December 31, 2028.
- Full NATO member is defined as continuing to assent to all NATO articles, and not going into “stand-by” or any other reduction in membership status.
- All other scenarios, including the US leaving NATO and returning, or the disbandment of NATO altogether, resolve YES.