Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Trump -> Stay 81.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Trump -> Stay 81.6%Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 27, 24, 3:17 PM UTCDec 2, 28, 11:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
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Manifold MarketsWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
The first half resolves based on the US president after inauguration day 2025.
- The second half resolves based on the actions of the US president during their four year term of office (2025-2029).
- An attempt to leave includes any attempt to send a notice of denunciation under article 13, regardless of whether it is found to be legally valid, and regardless of whether the one year waiting period expires.
- It also includes attempts to leave without invoking that article, such as invoking a fundamental change or circumstances, a material breach, domestic law, annulment, etc. It includes any actions of the executive branch of government, plus any actions of the legislative or judicial branch that are at the direction of the US President.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO
