What are the current odds for Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??

Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of October 27, 2026.

Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 80%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Apr 6, 25, 10:23 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.

This attempt must occur before January 1st 2030 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
This market does not resolve before January 1st 2031.
Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - AGI Definition: Follow the definition provided in this question.
Minimum Compute Requirement: The attempt must involve at least 100 kWh of inference compute using an AGI-class model.