Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 25, 8:59 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
According to a YouGov poll 52% believe that Trump "definitely" or "probably" will attempt a 3rd term.
- Resolves YES if there is clear and unequivocal evidence that Trump:
- Runs for a 3rd presidential term
- Attempts to subvert the 22nd Amendment in any (serious) way (e.g. through executive orders, trying to change the constitution, legal challenge, or campaigning)
- Prevents a peaceful transition of power
- Tries in some serious way to stay in power past January 20, 2029