Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)
4.0 pts (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastTrade Policy6d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above 180 · —
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Stored price
Above 190 50.5%Market line of 9 lines
Above 190 50.5%Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.4K
Open interest
$8.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 180Spread
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Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Nov 6, 26, 4:31 PM UTCNov 17, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 180
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 9?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait closed by which date?
FutuurWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
LimitlessRules
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 190 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 180
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 180 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 185
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 185 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 190
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 190 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 195
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 195 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 200
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 200 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 205
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 205 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 210
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 210 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 220
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 220 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 230
- If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 230 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.