LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 9:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
August 31 50%Leader of 4 outcomes
August 31 50%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 1:29 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
- Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed by...? · December 31 18%
- Also available on Polymarket — Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? · December 31 18%