PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 9:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
November 30 · —
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Stored reference
November 30 14%Leader of 5 outcomes
November 30 14%Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$51
Liquidity
$19.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$2.1K
Bid / Ask
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November 30Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 53 minutes ago
LaggingAug 18, 26, 11:37 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 7:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
September 15Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · November 30
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran target Iraq by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target an Arab country by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Jordan by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?
Manifold MarketsWill a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Oman.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.