Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by which date?
7.0 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
November 30 · —
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Stored reference
November 30 45%Leader of 4 outcomes
November 30 45%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$727
Liquidity
$22.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$4.5K
Bid / Ask
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November 30Spread
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Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 6:46 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 7:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
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Venue terms
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- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Market depth · November 30
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.