Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?
PoliticsOne-OffSpaceTechGeopoliticsMiddle EastEurope1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.3%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 26, 4:04 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the temporary Iran–Oman Hormuz shipping route begin operating by September 15?
Manifold MarketsIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
PolymarketFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran target Oman by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump bomb Oman?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if Iran and Oman jointly announce, adopt, or sign a permanent framework for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by 11:59 PM UTC on October 31, 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- A temporary route, an agreement merely to continue talks, or a unilateral proposal does not count.
- Source: Associated Press.
- The market closes twelve hours before the deadline.
- Related markets from today's news
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31? resolve?
- Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Iran and Oman jointly announce, adopt, or sign a permanent framework for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by 11:59 PM UTC on October 31, 2026.