Current community forecast
Yes 55.7%
Forecasters
55
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Dec 7, 25, 7:57 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketAfD in a German state government in 2026?
KalshiWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSaxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRules
Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).
- Resolves YES if AfD MPs vote for a winning candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win.
- Resolves NO if all State Prime Ministers elected in 2026 are elected without necessary AfD support.
- Scheduled 2026 state elections:
- Baden-Württemberg (8 March)
- Rhineland-Palatinate (22 March)
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support? resolve?
- Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).