Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMagdalena Andersson (S) 75%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 25, 7:11 AM UTCJan 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ulf Kristersson remain Swedish Prime Minister throughout the 2022-2026 term (until the next general election)?
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Manifold MarketsNew Zealand Prime Minister after the election?
KalshiWho will be Latvia’s Prime Minister after the election?
KalshiRules
Requires a successful investiture vote.
- Fresh elections without a successful investiture resolves N/A. If the government collapses soon after forming and another person becomes PM, it’s still the first to successfully become PM post-election that counts.
- Elections are in September 2026.
- Resolution is expected within about a month, or at least within the year, but can potentially drag on.
- For example, government formation after the 2018 elections took a record 134 days.
