KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 57%
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$692.2
Liquidity
$768.8
Low liquidityBid / Ask
40.0% / 44.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBCThe VergeAgence France-Presse
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.
- The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position does NOT count A coalition agreement that has been signed but under which no government has yet taken office does NOT count
Prediction Source Comparison
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does AfD in a German state government in 2026? resolve?
- AfD in a German state government in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is AfD in a German state government in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is AfD in a German state government in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.