Current community forecast
Yes 86.4%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 27, 25, 10:06 AM UTCOct 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
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Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government?
KalshiNext German federal election winner?
KalshiRules
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013.
- In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.
- This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.
- The market resolves to NO if:
- The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote
- The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election
