Current community forecast
No 54%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 27, 25, 10:32 PM UTCDec 8, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government completes its full 4-year term from 2025 to 2029.
- The market resolves NO if the government dissolves before the end of 2029, triggering early elections or a change in the governing coalition through other constitutional means.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the German Federal President or Bundestag regarding the dissolution of parliament or a change in government.
- The 2025 election took place seven months ahead of schedule due to the 2024 collapse of the Scholz governing coalition.
- On 9 April 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD secured a ruling coalition agreement, and the German parliament elected Friedrich Merz as chancellor on 6 May 2025.