Current community forecast
No 53.4%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 27, 25, 10:32 PM UTCDec 8, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government completes its full 4-year term from 2025 to 2029.
- The market resolves NO if the government dissolves before the end of 2029, triggering early elections or a change in the governing coalition through other constitutional means.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the German Federal President or Bundestag regarding the dissolution of parliament or a change in government.
- The 2025 election took place seven months ahead of schedule due to the 2024 collapse of the Scholz governing coalition.
- On 9 April 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD secured a ruling coalition agreement, and the German parliament elected Friedrich Merz as chancellor on 6 May 2025.
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $552.8K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-2.0pt84.2%
- Yes+2.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $905.2K
- 24h Vol
- $132.7K
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.6pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD78%
- SPD-0.5pt22%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Berlin State Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? resolve?
- Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? is scheduled to resolve on December 8, 2029.
- How is Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria