PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 89%
No 89%Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10
Liquidity
$13.5K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$30K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
4
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Dec 3, 25, 5:17 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
Manifold MarketsThe current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
Manifold MarketsSmallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
Manifold MarketsAny viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiHow high will USD/MXN get before 2027?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
- A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
- If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
- If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”