PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 87%
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$15.6
Liquidity
$13.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 14.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Dec 3, 25, 5:17 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes13%
Volume trend
$16Jul 221d of dataJul 27
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Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
- A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
- If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
- If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”