Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 59.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleFeb 26, 25, 3:03 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRules
This market pertains to the next German federal election, scheduled to occur on or before 25 March 2029.
- This market will resolve to the first Chancellor elected by the Bundestag following the next German federal election.
- If no federal election occurs by 2030, or an election is held but no Chancellor is elected before then, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
