KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
AfD · —
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Stored price
AfD 82%Leader of 7 outcomes
AfD 82%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$21.5K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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AfDSpread
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Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 4:23 PM UTCMar 25, 30, 2:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · AfD
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRules
If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bundeswahlausschuss
- For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Rules for each outcome
- AfD
- If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
- CDU/CSU
- If CDU/CSU wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
- SPD
- If SPD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Greens
- If Greens wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Left
- If The Left wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
- FDP
- If FDP wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
- BSW
- If BSW wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.