KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% 41.9%-13.0ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% 41.9%-13.0ptMarket quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11.6K
Open interest
$13.7K
Medium open interestSpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 25, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent
Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
PolymarketRules
If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (votos válidos, excluding blank and null votes) received by the candidate named in the market minus the share received by the other candidate in the runoff if the named candidate wins, or the share of the candidate that finishes first if the named candidate loses. If the named candidate wins, the margin will be positive; if the named candidate loses, the margin will be negative; if the named candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Rules for each outcome
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, 0-3%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 6% to 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is at or above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, 3-6%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, 6-9%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 6% to 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥9%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is at or above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.