Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad?
13.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-13.0ptVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-13.0ptMarket quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Open interest
$3K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
50.0% / 51.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 25, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
PolymarketRules
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO. The Exterior zone is the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) results unit for votes cast by Brazilian voters outside Brazil; ranking uses its runoff totals, regardless of the national result.
Rules for each outcome
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.