🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America17dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.8%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 8:15 PM UTCOct 24, 26, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Brazil presidential runoff: voter turnout
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: will Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debate?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if the absolute difference between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s shares of valid votes in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is less than 3.00 percentage points.
- For example, a 51.4%–48.6% result represents a 2.8-point margin and resolves YES.
- A 51.5%–48.5% result represents exactly 3.0 points and resolves NO.
- Resolution will use the final official valid-vote percentages published by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- Blank and invalid ballots are excluded.
- If the October 25 runoff is postponed, the market remains unresolved until the rescheduled vote occurs.