Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Roraima 97%Leader of 7 outcomes
Roraima 97%Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.1K
Open interest
$8.7K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 25, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Tocantins in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Each market ranks the runoff votes cast in the named state, as reported by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Votes cast abroad are not part of any state.
Rules for each outcome
- Roraima
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Roraima in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tocantins
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Tocantins in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Minas Gerais
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Minas Gerais in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Amapá
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Amapá in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Amazonas
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Amazonas in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Pará
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Pará in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Alagoas
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the state of Alagoas in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.