Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥3% 54%Market line of 6 lines
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥3% 54%Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.3K
Open interest
$3.3K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 25, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolsonaro loses. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the margin will be positive; if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, the margin will be negative; if Flávio Bolsonaro ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Flávio Bolsonaro runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Rules for each outcome
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥3%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥5%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥11%
- If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 11%, then the market resolves to Yes.