Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffEuropeElectionGeopolitics3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 20, 26, 9:00 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the government coalition currently led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (comprising the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Party) remains in power until the next scheduled federal election.
- The market will resolve to NO if the coalition dissolves, a new government is formed, or a snap election is called prior to the next scheduled federal election in early 2029.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the German Federal Government, the Federal President, or the Bundestag confirming the stability or formal dissolution of the governing coalition.
- Authoritative sources include the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiterin) and major credible news outlets reporting on German government changes.
- The 21st German Bundestag was constituted on March 25, 2025, following early federal elections held on February 23, 2025.
