KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Liberal Party 52.9%Leader of 3 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$12
Low liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 4:30 PM UTCOct 15, 30, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?
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KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRules
If the named outcome wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Elections Canada
- For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.
- If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls.
- See full rules for details.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Canadian federal election winner??
- Kalshi prices Liberal Party at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Next Canadian federal election winner? resolve?
- Next Canadian federal election winner? is scheduled to resolve on October 15, 2030.
- How is Next Canadian federal election winner? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes.