Will any serving head of state/government of a UN-recognised country become vegan by 2027?
One-OffPoliticsHealth & Medicine2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.2%
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8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 29, 25, 2:12 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
"Become" here means it only counts if they switch from being non-vegan to being vegan, not if they were already vegan at market creation or taking office.
- Returning to veganism only counts if they were non-vegan for >1y.
- "Vegan" here covers both identifying as such without the actual lifestyle changes and making the lifestyle changes without identifying as such.
- Trace amounts of animal products in goods and services they purchase or use are allowed, but it cannot account for >1% of product mass, volume, or surface area.
- Unknowingly or unwillingly using animal products does not disqualify them.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For verification purposes: