Current implied probability
Yes 56%-9.5pt
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.5K
Liquidity
$17.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
54.0% / 59.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
5
7d Change
+29.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:09 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
PolymarketWhich parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
PolymarketWhich parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President.
- In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
- A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office.
- Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
