Selected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored reference
Yes 52%
Yes 52%Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$3K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$19.9K
Bid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
—
Comments
13
7d Change
+9.5 pts
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:09 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · Yes
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President.
- In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.
- A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office.
- Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — AfD in a German state government? · Before Jan 1, 2030 96%
