Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
One-OffEuropeElectionPoliticsUS Politics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.8%
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binary
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Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 25, 9:43 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
There needs to be a formal coalition, e.g. tolerating a minority government does not count.
- I will follow the mainstream media consensus on whether a formal coalition exists.
- Generally, this involves things like a coalition contract and a division of the cabinet positions.
- There are currently six elections planned on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
- Note that coalition here requires at least one other party working with the AfD.
- If the AfD receives an absolute majority in one of the elections and can rule without a coalition, then this also resolves NO.
