Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
One-OffEuropeElectionPoliticsUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.5%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Feb 12, 25, 9:43 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketGerman "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)
Manifold MarketsWIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
Manifold MarketsHarris County Judge winner?
KalshiWhich parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
PolymarketRules
There needs to be a formal coalition, e.g. tolerating a minority government does not count.
- I will follow the mainstream media consensus on whether a formal coalition exists.
- Generally, this involves things like a coalition contract and a division of the cabinet positions.
- There are currently six elections planned on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
- Note that coalition here requires at least one other party working with the AfD.
- If the AfD receives an absolute majority in one of the elections and can rule without a coalition, then this also resolves NO.