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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 10:22 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 58%
Forecasters
65
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 18, 25, 10:37 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsGerman Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Sweden
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level.
- This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority.
- Tolerating a minority government does not count.
- I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government.
- Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.
- There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
