Current implied probability
Olivia Chow 78%Leader of 36 outcomes
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.4
Liquidity
$117.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 19.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Apr 1, 26, 6:40 PMOct 26, 26, 12:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Olivia Chow78%
Compare venues· Olivia Chow
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
Toronto mayoral election winner?
4.0 pts1y
-4.0pt73.1%
19.2%
3.9%
+1 more outcomes
53 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$15.1K
24h Vol$5
KALSHI
Also available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected mayor of Toronto in 2026?
3mo
+0.8pt68.1%
-0.7pt27%
-0.1pt2.4%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast18 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.