Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:09 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 80.2%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 22, 25, 9:09 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
Manifold MarketsRomanian parliament dissolved by which date?
PolymarketThe next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️
Manifold MarketsWill the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the German Bundestag (the federal parliament of Germany) is officially dissolved by December 31, 2026 (local time in Berlin).
- Any dissolution announced or legally enacted before this date counts, even if new elections have not yet been held.
- If the Bundestag remains in session beyond December 31, 2026, this market resolves to "No."
