Current community forecast
No 71.5%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 23, 26, 4:55 PM UTCApr 20, 50, 4:51 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
Manifold MarketsGerman Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
German Parliament (German Bundestag):
- The next new party (i.e., not the re-entry of an existing party such as the FDP, nor the splitting of a party already represented in the Bundestag into newly named subgroups) to enter the Bundestag will be an Islamic party.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if the next political party to enter the German Bundestag (German federal parliament) that was not previously represented in the current legislative period is primarily based on Islamic principles or explicitly identifies as an Islamic party.
- For the purposes of this market:
- "Entering the Bundestag" means gaining at least one seat in the Bundestag following a federal election or by-election.