Current community forecast
No 71%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingFeb 9, 26, 3:14 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketAfD in a German state government?
KalshiWill any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsGerman "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)
Manifold MarketsWill the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.