Current community forecast
No 77.8%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 26, 3:14 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government in 2026?
KalshiWIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria