Current community forecast
No 72.9%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 1, 24, 2:05 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketRepublicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Manifold MarketsNext Governing Mayor of Berlin?
PolymarketRules
resolves yes if AfD is part of the government of Germany (at the national level) at any point prior to December 31, 2030