Current implied probability
Elif Eralp 49%-15.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$14.3K
Liquidity
$109.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
3
7d Change
-26.5 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 12:08 PMSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
- To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in.
- Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Elif Eralp is 49%. Quotes span about 4 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference Elif Eralp 49% · 2 venues · 4 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — Next Governing Mayor of Berlin? · Elif Eralp 45%
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $908.6K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.1pt36.5%
- Édouard Philippe+1.5pt30.2%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.6%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio+1.3pt19%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva54.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt42.6%
- Renan Santos+0.2pt2%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt17.2%
- Jon Ossoff16.2%
- Gavin Newsom13.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $210.6M
- 24h Vol
- $525.3K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.7pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.4pt13%
- Jon Ossoff11%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Governing Mayor of Berlin??
- Polymarket prices Elif Eralp at 49% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Next Governing Mayor of Berlin? resolve?
- Next Governing Mayor of Berlin? is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is Next Governing Mayor of Berlin? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- Where else is Next Governing Mayor of Berlin? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.