Current community forecast
No 93.8%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 27, 25, 10:27 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
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PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enters into a governing coalition with at least one established mainstream German political party (such as CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, or Alliance 90/The Greens) at either the federal or state (Land) level, resulting in a signed coalition agreement, before or on December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if no such official coalition agreement is formed by the specified date.
- For resolution, verifiable evidence of a signed coalition agreement published by the participating parties, or official government formation documents, will be required.
- Casual parliamentary cooperation on specific votes, tacit support for motions, or agreements at the municipal/local level will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
- The "Brandmauer" (firewall) is a long-standing political consensus among Germany's established mainstream parties to prevent formal cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
