Current community forecast
No 95.2%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 27, 25, 10:27 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enters into a governing coalition with at least one established mainstream German political party (such as CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, or Alliance 90/The Greens) at either the federal or state (Land) level, resulting in a signed coalition agreement, before or on December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if no such official coalition agreement is formed by the specified date.
- For resolution, verifiable evidence of a signed coalition agreement published by the participating parties, or official government formation documents, will be required.
- Casual parliamentary cooperation on specific votes, tacit support for motions, or agreements at the municipal/local level will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
- The "Brandmauer" (firewall) is a long-standing political consensus among Germany's established mainstream parties to prevent formal cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Open markets
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- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
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- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) resolve?
- German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria