Current community forecast
Yes 82%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 30, 26, 1:44 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Friedrich Merz is the official Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) of Germany at any point on January 1, 2027, according to official government sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official portal of the Federal Chancellor (https://www.bundeskanzler.de) or the Federal Government of Germany (https://www.bundesregierung.de).
- In the event of a delay in updating these websites, credible international news outlets (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify who holds the office on that date.
- Note on acting chancellors: If Friedrich Merz is serving as an acting (geschäftsführender) Chancellor on January 1, 2027 (e.g., following a vote of no confidence or the collapse of a coalition), this market will still resolve to YES, provided he has not officially stepped down or been replaced by a successor sworn in by the Federal President.
