Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
EconomyOne-OffGeopoliticsEurope3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.1%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 26, 3:17 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Chancellor Friedrich Merz makes a public announcement by December 31, 2026 that Germany will increase defense spending to 3.0% of GDP.
- The announcement must be made by Merz himself (or an official statement from the German Chancellor's office) and must explicitly state a commitment to reach 3.0% of GDP in defense spending.
- Resolution sources include official German government statements, NATO announcements, or major international news outlets reporting on such an announcement.
- Germany's record €108.2 billion 2026 defense budget marks a historic shift, supporting a long-term Bundeswehr buildup and redefining Germany's role in European security and NATO.
- Germany only just met NATO's 2% GDP target in 2024, so this jump to ~2.8% by 2026 is unprecedented.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria